The off-season in the downstream sector, coupled with fear of high prices, led to sluggish transactions in the aluminum ingot market, with a 0.17% decline [SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Comment]

Published: Jul 3, 2025 17:40

Save

》View SMM Aluminum Product Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis

SMM, July 3:

The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2508 contract opened at 20,715 yuan/mt today, with a high of 20,735 yuan/mt, a low of 20,660 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,680 yuan/mt, down 0.17%. Trading volume reached 58,900 lots, and open interest stood at 281,000 lots.

SMM Commentary: On the macro front, domestic favorable policies continue to strengthen with unchanged focus on boosting consumption, while overseas macro conditions present mixed risks. Fundamentally, some aluminum smelters increased casting ingot production, coupled with off-season demand from downstream sectors and fear of high prices, resulting in sluggish market transactions. Aluminum ingot inventory saw a slight buildup, reaching 474,000 mt in major domestic consumption areas on July 3, up 6,000 mt from Monday and 11,000 mt WoW from Thursday. Spot premiums/discounts weakened significantly, suggesting short-term aluminum prices will likely maintain range-bound fluctuations. Close monitoring of casting ingot production and inventory changes is warranted.

The most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 3,059 yuan/mt today, peaked at 3,064 yuan/mt, bottomed at 3,007 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,026 yuan/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 195,000 lots, and open interest stood at 279,000 lots.

SMM Commentary: This week, alumina operating capacity decreased by 340,000 mt/year to 88.63 million mt/year. In the near term, alumina operating capacity is expected to remain elevated with only sporadic routine maintenance at some facilities, maintaining relatively loose spot market supply and capping alumina spot prices. However, recent futures rallies have brought the risk-free arbitrage window between futures and spot alumina close to opening, spurring active inquiries from futures-linked traders. Spot cargo availability has temporarily tightened, prompting suppliers to raise quotes. Short-term alumina spot prices may see marginal gains, though future trends depend on supply-demand fundamentals, futures price movements, and delivery warehouse transfer demands.

[Information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should exercise caution, avoid substituting independent judgment with this content, and understand that SMM bears no responsibility for any decisions made.]

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

23 hours ago

Fed Governor Milan Pushes for Over 100 Basis Points Cut, Contradicts Barkin on Caution

Federal Reserve Governor Milan pointed out that it is necessary for the US Fed to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. At the same time, he is very much looking forward to the performance of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman. However, Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that monetary policy must remain cautious until inflation fully pulls back to the target level, thereby ensuring the stability of the labour market.

23 hours ago

Democratic Senators Demand Delay in Fed Nomination Amid Criminal Investigation

All 11 Democratic members of the US Senate Banking Committee jointly sent a letter to the committee's chairman, Tim Scott, requesting that all nomination processes for the prospective Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, be postponed until the criminal investigation into current Fed Chairman Powell and other board members is concluded. However, Scott stated that Warsh's confirmation was a done deal.

23 hours ago

Fed to Keep Large Banks' Capital Levels Unchanged, Postpones Stress Test Reforms Until 2027

The US Fed has announced that it will maintain the capital levels of large banks unchanged during the upcoming stress test cycle (corresponding to the 2026 cycle). At the same time, the US Fed is planning multidimensional reforms to this annual test, aiming to enhance its transparency. The US Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision, Bowman, revealed that adjustments to the stress capital buffer requirements for large banks will be postponed until 2027. This move is intended to provide the US Fed with sufficient time to evaluate potential flaws that may be exposed in its testing models when assessing banks' financial conditions under simulated economic downturn scenarios.

23 hours ago